tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886491474303385529.post1184116713308098077..comments2023-04-22T09:22:21.628-07:00Comments on the dorbel daily: The Sharp End Answersdorbelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13383981659478145403noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886491474303385529.post-23102757022102891152011-12-02T15:51:29.647-08:002011-12-02T15:51:29.647-08:00O.K., after playing around with the computer a bit...O.K., after playing around with the computer a bit more, I see that one way I could imagine estimating White's winning chances OTB would be as follows. Half of Blue's rolls I'd call "strong" (the doublets plus the 12 non-doublet pointing rolls); the other half I'd call "mediocre." After a strong roll, White's winning chances are roughly 25%, and after a mediocre roll (which Blue will indeed use to hit loose if he can), White's winning chances are roughly 40%. Averaging 25% and 40% gives about 32%. This is an approximation because not all the strong rolls are equally strong (e.g., 66 is much better than 33), nor are all the mediocre rolls equally mediocre, but it's not too far from the truth, and I can imagine learning how to make this kind of estimate OTB.Timothy Chowhttp://alum.mit.edu/www/tchownoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886491474303385529.post-58194457240174494312011-12-02T00:17:19.002-08:002011-12-02T00:17:19.002-08:00Yes, 8/6, 8/3 does indeed cost more than 0.2ppg, s...Yes, 8/6, 8/3 does indeed cost more than 0.2ppg, startling to me too! The 9-2 play prevents White from playing 1-1 and 6-1, as well as getting a triple shot after 6-3, 6-4 and 6-5. The double slot is also more positive than the "safer" 8-6, 8-3, making a board much faster than the alternate.<br />In position 5 White is hardly dead even when Black throws one of his 15 hit and point numbers. When he has to hit loose, White will have a direct shot and escaping numbers trough the open 5pt. XG gives White 32% wins here.dorbelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13383981659478145403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4886491474303385529.post-33239219274686102482011-12-01T18:09:22.367-08:002011-12-01T18:09:22.367-08:00I came late to the party. Is 8/6 8/3 really a dou...I came late to the party. Is 8/6 8/3 really a double whopper in position 1? That's quite startling to me.<br /><br />Even after being told that Position 5 is not hard and that the take is clear, I still don't see how to calculate it. Maybe I should have credited White with 2 wins (out of 36) for the four misses, 2 wins for the 15 pointing rolls, and 6 wins for Black's remaining rolls?Timothy Chowhttp://alum.mit.edu/www/tchownoreply@blogger.com