Thursday, 28 April 2011
The Big Quiz, part 3
You'll have been reading recently (fibsboard) about how we need to allocate more thinking time when we roll a doublet and the move isn't clear. What do we need to think about? I like to gather information and the first piece is the pipcount, cunningly not displayed in yesterday's post, so that you had to count it for yourself, just as you would in live play. After this roll, Blue leads 134 to 158. Given an average White roll Blue will come on roll next turn with a 16 pip lead. With that sort of lead there's no reason for Blue to stay back and 22/10(2) is clearly correct. If you're ahead in the race, move forward, if you're behind in the race, stay back. Not rocket science is it?
This is one of those doublets that allows us to move from one type of game to another. Before the roll both sides had two men back and were struggling for position. This giant roll allows Blue to switch two men from a weak anchor to a strong outfield point, so that suddenly he is bearing in, either against an anchor or against one or two blots. Clem is worried that with all his men on four points Blue is a bit stacked, but closer inspection reveals that the situation is a lot more flexible than it looks. All the doublets play well next turn and 16 other rolls make the bar, 5 or 4pts. All the other rolls can be played leaving an outfield blot at the worst, except 6-5 and Blue will even get away with that if White moves up next turn.
22/10(2) is clearly best, score two points for that. No points for 22/16(2), 13/7(2) a medium size error and anything else is a huge blunder! One reason for the strength of making the 10pt is that from there, Blue can usually move serenely towards a nice doubling position, building a prime or blitzing or just racing home as the dice dictate. The plays that include hitting comit Blue to an attacking policy, without the option to prime and with a deep point made that isn't very useful as a landing point in the race variations.
In the match I played 22/10(2) as advertised and then the plays went like this
White 3-1, 8/5, 6/5
Blue 6-3, 13/7, 10/7
White 5-3, 23/15*
Another doublet, several choices, what would you do? We'll find out tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the game!