the dorbel daily

Wednesday, 14 November 2012

The Big Hammer

The 4 cube is the bg equivalent of the Mighty Hammer of Thor, deadly in the right hands. The player prepared to ship a 4 cube at the first opportunity will wreak havoc at all levels below World Class. The possesion of the cube can be worth a lot, but only if you are prepared to use it! In a recent match I had two opportunities to use it. Here's the first.
You are Black, holding the 2 cube in the first game of a 9 point match. What's the correct cube action for both sides here?

The first question to ask yourself, always, is "If I was White, am I 100% certain that this is a take? If not, it must be a double." This is known as Woolsey's Rule. Pretty clearly you can't be certain that this is a take, with two men on the roof against a four point board, so Black is good enough to redouble. Now move on to question two. "Am I 100% certain that this is too good to double? If yes, play on for the gammon for at least one roll, if no, turn the cube." This is known as dorbel's rule. Purists don't like this rule, but in practical terms it performs quite well.
So, what's the answer? This is a correct redouble and a correct pass, even though Black's checkers are not well placed to close the board and he still has one checker behind a five prime. Failing to cube or taking the cube are both small blunders costing about 1/10th of a point.
Dorbel's rule works quite well in situations where the decision to cube or play on isn't clear, because if you get a pass it puts two concrete points onto the scoresheet and when you get a take in this position , as you often will, you gain 2/10ths of a point in theoretical equity. Actually you often get takes in positions much stronger than this and passes in positions that are much weaker. The point of cubing, often missed, is that it allows your opponent the opportunity to make a mistake. The Mighty Hammer of Four is a terrifying weapon.
 The big temptation is to play on in the hope that if things go well you will win a gammon and if things deteriorate, you'll be able to cash later. That's often the case of course, but it's easy to see here that an "ordinary" number for Black, 5-3 say, followed by the same number for White will leave Black in a position where not only can't he cash, but he won't even have a redouble!
I failed to redouble that one, forgetting my own rule! TIP:More mistakes are made by forgetting the things that you already know than are made from technical ignorance.

Later on I led 4-2 to 9 and holding the cube, got down to this juicy position.

Uneven distribution and different numbers of checkers, so we can't rely on formulae that only count the pips. Black will usually waste a lot of pips here, initially when he throws sixes or fives and later when he gets down to only checkers on the two and one points. White on the other hand will use all her numbers efficiently at first, as even a 3 will fill her gap nicely. She also has two extra checkers off and less wastage on the lowest points. Black though has two things going for him. He gets to roll first and all the lower doublets are much better for him than they are for White. He is a lock to be off in six rolls and to win without doublets White will need to get off in five rolls. She'll have to roll pretty well to do that, so this might be a redouble so I did a Thorp Count . This old fashioned formula is very easy to apply and if you make some little adjustments for gaps, can be very accurate.
Actually here, Thorp rates this as an initial double but not a redouble and given that Black leads in the match he should be a little more conservative than usual in bringing a large cube into play. Nevertheless, making a small adjustment for White's gap makes a difference. Also, Black will get some incorrect passes here and with the end of the match so close, White's opportunities to redouble to 8 are going to be limited, so I finally turned it and White correctly took. Both actions are correct.
Note that Woolsey's Rule still works here. I couldn't be certain that this is a take for White, fairly confident yes, 100% certain, no. If the cube dies with this turn, at 0-0 to 3 say, this position is a marginal take/pass, so a useful reference position.
When you take a 2 cube, part of your equity lies in your willingness to use it if things go your way. Don't be afraid to use it! Swing that Mighty Hammer and reap the rewards.


Anonymous said...

For the second problem Keith count works quite well I think.
It's more accurate than Thorp in small races.
Keith for black: 41
Keith for white: 38
Metric: 3
so its a Redouble/Take


dorbel said...

Yes I think the Keith count is actually more accurate than an unadjusted Thorp count and if you learn it do it, great. I stick with what I know and don't feel the need to learn something new here. If you haven't yet learned a formula for this type of position, I would say go for Keith.