Confession Is Good For The Soul

Confession is also good for your error rate. If you play carelessly and just say, "Oh well, nobody was watching" when XG pitilessly exposes your blunders, then there is a very good chance that you'll keep playing carelessly in the future. I can't stress enough how important to get into the habit of always trying to find the best play, even in matches against bots that mean nothing. All of us I think, make more blunders through carelessness than we do through misreading a position.
So, for a while, I'm going to use this column to just show you some of the blunders that I make. This will do wonders for my own play and with any luck, the positions will throw up some ideas that will help everybody.

Here's the first of these, dorbel (Black) playing a Fibs GBot (White), both sides 5-away.

I think everybody will make the bar here, so it's a choice of three fives. Actually here is the first hurdle to jump. Did you actively consider all the fives? Can't say that I did, but there's nothing intrinsically wrong with 13/7, just a bit stolid. What I actually did was to make the action play, 23/18, 8/7, but this is easily the worst five. It encourages White to attack while she has the stronger board and no other convincing game plan for the moment. Correct is 8/7, 6/1. Once you've been forced to hit loose on the ace point, it's almost always right to make it, converting a minor embarrassment into a small asset. It's right here, by a lot, as it almost always is in the opening stages of the game. I actually knew this, I just thought that this one might be an exception! It isn't.

Later on I'm on the bar with a 2-1 to play.

 I made the 23pt. I can't really describe this as a thought process, but I think what happened was that my instinct was "Phew, I've entered and I can anchor, so that'll keep the gammons down." That's true as it happens, but of course I have to give up a lot of wins to save those gammons and bar/24, 6/4* is correct, trying to take away half (or all) of White's next roll and stop her adding another point to her prime. Instinct isn't a substitute for thought.

Lastly, if you can stand one more from this terrible game, I hit a late shot and got round to this 5-5.

I took two men off but stacking the ace point and keeping the closed board is right. This makes Black a small favourite, while two men off makes him a small underdog. Once again, thought is required. Taking two men off leaves Black in a seven roll position with a five point board. Playing 11/1, 10/5, 6/1 leaves him in an eight roll position, but White can't enter and from this the worst that can happen is that he will come down to the same thing next turn. If he can throw 3-2, 2-1 or 1-1 he can do better than that, taking off a checker or checkers and keeping the board for yet another roll.

Learn anything? I did, so tomorrow (always a moveable feast on this blog) we'll have a look at some more dorbel blunders.
Until then, enjoy the game!

The Big Hammer

The 4 cube is the bg equivalent of the Mighty Hammer of Thor, deadly in the right hands. The player prepared to ship a 4 cube at the first opportunity will wreak havoc at all levels below World Class. The possesion of the cube can be worth a lot, but only if you are prepared to use it! In a recent match I had two opportunities to use it. Here's the first.
You are Black, holding the 2 cube in the first game of a 9 point match. What's the correct cube action for both sides here?

The first question to ask yourself, always, is "If I was White, am I 100% certain that this is a take? If not, it must be a double." This is known as Woolsey's Rule. Pretty clearly you can't be certain that this is a take, with two men on the roof against a four point board, so Black is good enough to redouble. Now move on to question two. "Am I 100% certain that this is too good to double? If yes, play on for the gammon for at least one roll, if no, turn the cube." This is known as dorbel's rule. Purists don't like this rule, but in practical terms it performs quite well.
So, what's the answer? This is a correct redouble and a correct pass, even though Black's checkers are not well placed to close the board and he still has one checker behind a five prime. Failing to cube or taking the cube are both small blunders costing about 1/10th of a point.
Dorbel's rule works quite well in situations where the decision to cube or play on isn't clear, because if you get a pass it puts two concrete points onto the scoresheet and when you get a take in this position , as you often will, you gain 2/10ths of a point in theoretical equity. Actually you often get takes in positions much stronger than this and passes in positions that are much weaker. The point of cubing, often missed, is that it allows your opponent the opportunity to make a mistake. The Mighty Hammer of Four is a terrifying weapon.
 The big temptation is to play on in the hope that if things go well you will win a gammon and if things deteriorate, you'll be able to cash later. That's often the case of course, but it's easy to see here that an "ordinary" number for Black, 5-3 say, followed by the same number for White will leave Black in a position where not only can't he cash, but he won't even have a redouble!
I failed to redouble that one, forgetting my own rule! TIP:More mistakes are made by forgetting the things that you already know than are made from technical ignorance.

Later on I led 4-2 to 9 and holding the cube, got down to this juicy position.

Uneven distribution and different numbers of checkers, so we can't rely on formulae that only count the pips. Black will usually waste a lot of pips here, initially when he throws sixes or fives and later when he gets down to only checkers on the two and one points. White on the other hand will use all her numbers efficiently at first, as even a 3 will fill her gap nicely. She also has two extra checkers off and less wastage on the lowest points. Black though has two things going for him. He gets to roll first and all the lower doublets are much better for him than they are for White. He is a lock to be off in six rolls and to win without doublets White will need to get off in five rolls. She'll have to roll pretty well to do that, so this might be a redouble so I did a Thorp Count . This old fashioned formula is very easy to apply and if you make some little adjustments for gaps, can be very accurate.
Actually here, Thorp rates this as an initial double but not a redouble and given that Black leads in the match he should be a little more conservative than usual in bringing a large cube into play. Nevertheless, making a small adjustment for White's gap makes a difference. Also, Black will get some incorrect passes here and with the end of the match so close, White's opportunities to redouble to 8 are going to be limited, so I finally turned it and White correctly took. Both actions are correct.
Note that Woolsey's Rule still works here. I couldn't be certain that this is a take for White, fairly confident yes, 100% certain, no. If the cube dies with this turn, at 0-0 to 3 say, this position is a marginal take/pass, so a useful reference position.
When you take a 2 cube, part of your equity lies in your willingness to use it if things go your way. Don't be afraid to use it! Swing that Mighty Hammer and reap the rewards.

In The Spotlight Again.

In the previous post, we saw how the bold play was correct, even though it enhanced the match leader's gammon risk. Winning the game is a very good way of not being gammoned! UK expert Rick Janowski points out that in fact in these situations the money play is usually correct and that it is a very common mistake to over-estimate gammon danger for the leader.
Today it was my turn in the spotlight, playing for UK against Moldova in the Inter-Nation Cup on GridGammon. I led throughout the match, so played a number of games where I was keen to keep the opponent's gammon chances down. This one came when I led 8-5 to 11.



I rejected 6/1, 5/1 and I hope that you would too. Burning two spares and leaving the problem of how to  clear the 8pt is not the way to go. Black has to make a bold play while White is on the bar. I went for 8/3, 5/1 leaving five fly shots for White, but this is still not bold enough! The money play, 8/3, 6/2* is best, essential to stop White from making the 23pt anchor next roll. It's so easy when the winning post is in sight to try and avoid the last minute turnaround, particularly when White has such a good board, but it's right to leave eleven shots here and the match play is a smallish error.

Allowing for gammon losses is much more important when the cube comes across. Here's a good example that came when I led 8-2 to 11. White doubles, is this a take?

For money this isn't too hard. Black will at worst have an ace point game to fall back on. This isn't enough for a take on its own of course, but added to his other chances it makes for a pretty easy take. Here though, the cube is worth somewhere between next-to-nothing and not-a-lot and a gammon loss is very serious. XG++ will pass it, as did I , but a rollout indicates that it might be an ultra close take! Good reference position if you save them. Take or pass, this one loses Black one point, always after a pass, on average after a take. If you feel that the position is a marginal take/pass like this, which side should you plump for? Conventional wisdom suggests take, so that your opponent has to play for his point, rather than being handed it on a plate. If you think that you are clearly the better player this makes a lot of sense, as White in this position may well make some mistakes on the way home that will boost your equity a bit. If on the other hand you are the weaker player, it might make sense to bin this one and wait for a better opportunity later. You want to escalate the cube in a relatively skill free environment.
Until it's your turn in the spotlight, enjoy the game!

In The Spotlight.

Picture the scene. It's an important match, there are watchers and worse still, it's a team event. You are in the spotlight and and you get an ultra tough roll. Even the strongest players can blunder here. Look at the position below. Black, a strong expert, leads 10-8 to 11, post-crawford, after at one stage leading 10-3 Crawford with one point left to clear for victory. All of this adds up to pressure, particularly now he's reached this score and a gammon loss is the match lost.

White is on the bar and Black rolls 5-2. The cube is dead, the gammon threat is one way and the obvious hitting play and the more adventurous double hit are suddenly not so appetizing. What should Black do?
The first plan to abandon is 8/1 to cover the blot and make a three point board. This burns Black's major asset, his broken five prime and it isn't even very safe, leaving 14 indirect shots. It does of course give White nine numbers to dance as well, but she won't be worrying to much about that I think.
Black actually tried 15/8, keeping his prime, adding a builder and cutting the shots down to eleven. He succumbed to the temptation of keeping the anchor as security, because of gammon fear and possibly, the very common failing seen at all levels of not wanting to put the match on the line now.
One of the best ways to avoid the gammon is to win the game! After hitting, Black is the clear favourite (56%) to win the game. After the quiet play he is the clear underdog (40%). He'll lose 23 gammons after the hitting play, but he still loses 15 after playing quietly. It's no contest and 15/8 is a big blunder, cutting his match winning chances by about 4.3%
The best play is 23/18*, 15/13, keeping the shots down to 12 and quite importantly, knocking away White's valuable slot for the bar. It does of course expose Black to the danger of being closed out after a hit, but White doesn't have much in place to go for that after she has two checkers on the bar. Even when she enters those, they are fairly well primed. 
When it's your turn in the spotlight, be brave! Play to win, not to avoid losing. Black here is in a poor psychological state to play aggressively. He had the match all but won half an hour ago and he has been on the defensive ever since as game after game has leaked away. When you find yourself in this sort of position, which you will one day, try to think like a predator, not a prisoner.
Until the next time, enjoy the game!

Two On The Bar. Always Better By Far?

Given the chance to put two checkers on the bar, we usually grab it, "Two on the bar, better by far" as my old friend Graeme Sievers, a British Open Champion in the nineties, used to say. Here though is a nice example of when that old saying leads us astray.
It's dmp again, with Black to play 6-6.



 

After a bit of thought, Black played what might be considered the default play, 8/2*(2), 7/1*(2). How bad can it be to put two on the roof and make a five point board? Here it's a large blunder costing about 0.08 ppg or if you prefer, this cuts Black's game winning chances down from 79% to 75%.
What's wrong with Black's play? The key strategy in one point matches  is to stay pure and this means relying very heavily on primes to win the game and also keeping all your checkers in play and connected.
Connected just means within six pips of each other. In play means not comitting checkers to the lowest points in your board, where they can't be used any more.
You can see here that the blitz play gives up the prime, disconnects the checkers on the far side of the board and buries four checkers deep in Black's board. There's more to this position though, which we can see by looking at White's checkers. She has four checkers balanced on the end of her broken four prime, it is front-loaded. This is a very bad situation for her if she is forced to play next turn, but putting her on the roof means that she won't be forced to crash.
The best play here looks like 24/18, 22/10, 13/7 and 24/18, 22/4 is a fairly close alternate.
What can we learn here? Stay pure in dmp games, priming and connectivity are the key. Particularly here too, look at every checker on the board. It's so easy here to focus on Black's checkers and those blots that White has, but looking at all her checkers quickly shows how fragile her position really is.
It wouldn't be too difficult to edit this position by bringing Black's checkers around until the point where blitzing becomes correct, but I'll leave you to do that for yourself. Why should I do all the work?
Until tomorrow, enjoy the game!

The Return of the Dorbel Daily

Well, after a five month break from this blog, I feel suitably refreshed and inspired to re-start it. One of the major problems with the old blog from the reader point of view was that it wasn't in fact daily. I intend to try and rectify that and bring you something each day for us to think about. These will always be drawn from real play and the object is not to find you fascinating, rare and difficult positions, although I hope that there will be some, but to try and build up thought patterns that will help us to deal with the problems that occur a lot. Dealing with a recurring problem that often generates  an error can pay bigger dividends than eliminating a blunder in a position that occurs once in a Blue Moon.
Here's the sort of thing that I mean, an early 6-4 and should I make the 2pt?

It's dmp and White is on the bar. I decided not to make the 2pt and instead played 17/11, 13/9. This creates two new builders for vital points and cuts down White's return shots, a nice pure old-school play. Staying pure at dmp is very important right? However, this turns out on analysis to be the second best play and making the 2pt is best. Can we say why?
The first thing to note is that Black has made the 4pt without using any of the spares on the 6pt. One of the reasons for not making the 2pt early is that our spares are needed for making the more important  5, 4 and 3pts, but once one or more of those are made, we can be much more free and easy with how we use our spares. Also, playing 17/11 leaves the last checker on the ace point rather isolated, with an eleven pip gap to jump in order to rejoin the rest of the force. Note too, that although 17/11, 13/9 cuts return shots from 12 to 6, it also lifts the pressure on White's 11pt blot. Lastly, a point is a point when all is said and done and making another home board point gives White nine numbers to dance next turn, not four! These five extra dances neatly cancel out White's six extra return shots.
Can we do all this thinking over the board? I don't think so. Not only will the game become insufferably slow, but we will quickly exhaust our brains and be in no shape to play well later. What we can do though is to try and do what I have just done here when we do the post-match analysis. Hopefully some of that will get stored in our sub-conscious and reappear in a match when we need it, although we may never see this exact position again of course. However, you may like to try my flag system! This flags particular features of a position with a mental pennant, so that we keep it in mind in our decision making. Stacks with five or more checkers are of course very damaging, the "silent killers" as Robertie calls them, sucking the life out of our position with their inflexibility. Fly a mental flag from the top of your stacks bearing the message "PRIORITY: UNSTACK ME PLEASE". If you still have a stack on the 6pt and you have already made a point inboard, colour the flag fluorescent pink!
I'll have a look at a later position from this game tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the game!

The End

Apologies to all the readers who have been looking for some content during the last three weeks. What happened? Well, I get a phase now and again when my own play goes completely to pot, as I take huge passes, miss obvious plays and generally play like a clown. This is invariably because I get overloaded, thinking about the game, playing, writing, giving lessons and in the end I just get totally confused! Writing in this mood is quite impossible and as I've had a quiet time on the lesson front, I've taken a break. In the interim, I've lost the match from which I was taking the back game positions, so I can't go on with that either. What is really happening here is that I have to give this blog up for a while, along with playing speed sudoku, Fibs, Gridgammon and watching endless bowling shows on You Tube. I have to get out from in front of this computer and get some fresh air! It's been great fun doing this and thanks a million to those of you who have taken the trouble to contribute. Your interest and appreciation have more than repaid the time I've put into it.
perhaps one day I'll be inspired to kick start it again.
In the meantime, enjoy the game!